by Lee Adler, Friday, September 5, 2008, in Today's Markets |
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Weekly data from the Fed showed an extraordinary decline in the level of custodial holdings of GSE paper for foreign central banks. It was the 7th weekly decline in a row. The long awaited great FCB dumpoff is here. They didn’t buy many Treasuries either. Could this be the beginning of the end of the world as we know it. Carrying coals to Newcastle, the Fed drained liquidity from the market on Friday for the fourth day in a row. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Friday, September 5, 2008, in Today's Markets, Money and The Fed, Professional Edition, Real Estate, Housing |
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Hints of improvement in the housing market have been bandied about in the financial infomercial media, but just what does the evidence say? Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Friday, September 5, 2008, in Subscription Podcasts |
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This report is available to Radio Free Wall Street subscribers this week only. Use your Radio Free Wall Street login to download the report. Our regular podcast will return next Wednesday.
Hints of improvement in the housing market have been bandied about in the financial infomercial media, but just what does the evidence say? Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Friday, September 5, 2008, in Today's Markets |
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Andy Bebut, Thursday, September 4, 2008, in Economics |
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My last market-related articles were “The top is near” from Aug 11 and “Market is running out of good news“. The market developed more or less in line with my expectations, i.e. quite painfully for the bulls.
The rolling over the hill was not very surprising as several oscillators turned or reached extreme conditions. You can find some charts in those posts above and in posts at the capitalstool.com message board. But they still don’t explain why the market peaked so fast after the July bottom. Here I invite you to discuss that development.
(more…)
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by Lee Adler, Thursday, September 4, 2008, in Today's Markets |
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The market fell sharply through the trading range that has confined it in recent weeks. Moves like that are easy and common in ranges that have been cleaned out of bids and offers through repeated crossings. Breaking out of the range is a little more difficult as there are often more bids below the bottom of the range. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Thursday, September 4, 2008, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition |
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Thursday was another day the Fed stood still, not adding any cash to the system as the stock market once again melted down. As long as money is panicking into Treasuries, Ben and Company are quite content to let stock investors suffer. But this fear driven tidal wave of cash flooding the Treasury market is not infinite. Just like selling panics, all buying panics burn out, and when they do, there’s a heavy price. There are hints that the demand pool that has been driving this panic may be reaching the limits of what it is able and willing to absorb. But there’s no limit in sight to what the Treasury will have no choice but to supply. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Thursday, September 4, 2008, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition |
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler/The Wall Street Examiner, Wednesday, September 3, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog |
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Russ has posted another new trade suggestion.
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© Lee Adler/The Wall Street Examiner for Winter (Economic & Market) Watch, 2008. |
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by Lee Adler, Wednesday, September 3, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition |
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After spending most of the day on the downside, the market recovered to close right on or around key trendlines as regression to trend mean tendencies exerted their pull. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Wednesday, September 3, 2008, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition |
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The Fed sat on its hands on Wednesday, allowing Fed credit to drop again. The crush of Treasury supply has been safely absorbed, thanks to worldwide credit market panic driving money into Treasuries. With PDs and banks in liquidation mode, the Fed needs to draw down Fed credit in order to keep overnight rates near the target levels. The lack of animal spirits, the unwillingness to invest long in the equities market, and the continuing downtrend in Fed credit, is keeping pressure on equities. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler/The Wall Street Examiner, Wednesday, September 3, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog |
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The natural gas names sold off hard on the notion that Gustav missed. Apparently little notice has been given to a train of potential cyclones in the Atlantic, or that shutdowns from Gustav may still be undetermined.
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by Lee Adler, Wednesday, September 3, 2008, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition |
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Wednesday, September 3, 2008, in General News and Views |
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Just a reminder that we are taking some time off this week and will be back with you with our next podcast next Wednesday, September 10. A Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Real Estate Market update will be made available to podcast subscribers. Stay tuned to this space for information on when and how to access the report.
Thanks for your support!
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by Andy Bebut, Tuesday, September 2, 2008, in Economics |
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The market had it chance.
- The Q2 GDP growth was mind-blowing
- Oil is crashing (it’s questionably good news, but at least a relieve at the pump)
- GSEs got the blank check to fill, spreads narrowed sharply
- Lehman got a Korean investor
And the market blew it.
(more…)
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by Lee Adler, Tuesday, September 2, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition, Long Term Outlook |
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The market continues to conform to the long term forecast that has remained little changed since late last year. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Tuesday, September 2, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition |
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The market put on another fireworks display, briefly breaching key resistance levels shortly after the open, but in the end sellers won out. They did not appear to gain the upper hand yet in the bigger picture however. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler/The Wall Street Examiner, Tuesday, September 2, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog |
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There are several important backdrops to today’s trading market that tend to artificially support stock prices. One is fundamental, as many corporations have the ability to deal with inflationary conditions more so than individuals and corporations. The second element are the extremely low real interest rates on lower risk savings vehicles like certificates of deposits, [...] To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets,
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by Lee Adler, Tuesday, September 2, 2008, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition |
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The fact that the Fed did nothing to help the market settle $31 billion in new Treasuries issued today may have something to do with why the stock market did not hold its gains from this morning. The dealers were a little strapped. Perhaps the Fed was looking ahead to this week’s light Treasury calendar, which will give the dealers a breather and allow the Fed to drain reserves in order to keep Fed Funds from dropping too far below the 2% target. That would be bearish for stocks. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Tuesday, September 2, 2008, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition |
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Monday, September 1, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition, Bellwethers |
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The charts in this report show the status of 21 large cap bellwether stocks with prices updated through 8/18/08. The charts include 13-week and/or 6 month cycle centered moving average projections. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Sunday, August 31, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition |
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Friday’s reversal was not confirmed by cycle indicators. This may just be the lag factor, or it could mean that the up phase still has life. Tuesday’s action could bring clarification or leave the picture just as muddled as ever. Today’s report tells you exactly what to look for Tuesday to indicate what the future holds. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Andy Bebut, Friday, August 29, 2008, in Finance, Economics |
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This week we’ve got some inflation numbers and I invite you to dissect them a little bit.
The GDP price index was reported to be 1.2%, which gave us a very election-friendly 3.3% growth. The personal consumption expenditure came with 2.4% Y/Y inflation attached. And if we dig back into latest CPI report the headline inflation was 5.6% and core inflation 2.5%. So we have 4 different numbers, enough to get confused.
Let see the first chart.
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by Lee Adler, Friday, August 29, 2008, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition |
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The Fed added modestly to Primary Dealer trading accounts on Friday, driving the 5 day net add to more than $17 billion to help the dealers cope with settling a mind boggling $67 billion in new Treasury paper settling over the week that began Wednesday and will end on Tuesday. Meanwhile, banks bellied up to the Discount Window bar again, Primary Dealers continued to tell the Fed thanks but no thanks, to the PDCF, and foreign central banks bought Treasuries, but sold GSE paper for the 6th week in a row. The FCB subsidy of US mortgage markets is ending, and that is very bad news indeed. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler/The Wall Street Examiner, Friday, August 29, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog |
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One industry that looks ripe for the pickings is the food processing business. This is largely consumer non-discretionary and has defensive characteristics in hard times. Unfortunately the group has been heavily impacted by Mad Max economics. Among the Blue Light Special (BLS) prospects in the group I have selected…
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by Lee Adler, Friday, August 29, 2008, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition |
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Russ Winter, Friday, August 29, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog |
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One of more remarkable characteristics of the Bubble era was the great enthusiasm foreigners and especially foreign central banks (FCB) showed toward accumulating massive holdings of housing agency mortgages and debt. I can’t count how many times I have mentioned this in podcasts or have written in disbelief about this. This trend seemed as certain [...] To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets,
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by Lee Adler, Thursday, August 28, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition |
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The Bush Administration put on an impressive display on Thursday morning with its revised GDP number; a show designed to counter the love story with fireworks and marching bands extravaganza coming out of Denver. The market took the bait hook line and sinker. It didn’t hurt that the Fed has pumped $18 billion in cash into the market over the past week at a time when the Treasury market didn’t need it, thanks to the fright to safety. So stocks surged, but they did not break out, and at this point at least nothing has changed in the intermediate outlook. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Thursday, August 28, 2008, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition |
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The Fed stepped in with another big liquidity push for the third time this week as it sought to help the market absorb $67 billion in new Treasury supply. The market didn’t need the help, however, as the panic flight of capital into Treasuries took the pressure to absorb all the paper off the Primary Dealers shoulders. That allowed them to put the cash from the Fed to work in the stock market, triggering a short squeeze and buying stampede into which they were almost certainly distributing. The blast got ignition from a government show print on the GDP number, which we all know will get revised down sharply after the election. The great theater in Denver has the Administration running scared, and they came up with a nice surprise package in response. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Thursday, August 28, 2008, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition |
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Russ Winter, Thursday, August 28, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog |
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In the podcast, I discussed the concept of paired trades, which you can hear in the last five minutes. The paired trade I am looking to put on is-
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by Andy Bebut, Wednesday, August 27, 2008, in Finance, Economics |
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Apparently China is making some additional steps that could destabilize its financial system and lead to hyperinflation. For reference, I will also use the materials from this podcast, where Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at Merk Investments LLC is discussing his impressions from the forum in Jackson Whole.
Back in July I wrote that the economic problems there are mounting. Since then, the story developed. The Telegraph report claims that China just performed a currency intervention of about $50 bln, and apparently for a reason.
China’s PMI purchasing managers index fell below 50 for the first time in July, signaling an outright contraction in manufacturing output. Hong Kong’s economy contracted 1.4pc in the second quarter. The Politburo has rushed through special rebates for textile producers now caught in a ferocious downturn. […]
“During the first half of this year, about 67,000 small and medium-sized companies went bankrupt throughout China, leaving more than 20m people out of work,” said the National Development and Reform Commission. “Bankruptcies of textile and spinning companies have numbered more than 10,000. Two thirds are on the brink of bankruptcy.”
(more…)
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by Lee Adler, Wednesday, August 27, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition |
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Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Wednesday, August 27, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition |
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The Fed did a big $5.5 billion net add today bringing the 5 day net to an add of $10.25 billion. That was as expected as the Fed greases the skids for $61 billion in new Treasury paper issuance. The Treasury’s 2 year note auction went off at a lower yield than last month, but the bid/cover ratio was down, and so was the level of indirect bidding. The Fannie spread also widened slightly, which could be an indication of reduced FCB interest. The Treasury holds a 5 year note auction tomorrow.
Due to technical issues, a detailed Fed report will not be posted today, but Professional Edition subscribers can access today’s Radio Free Wall Street podcast in lieu of the usual Fed report. The Fed report will return in its usual format tomorrow.
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by Lee Adler, Wednesday, August 27, 2008, in Subscription Podcasts |
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Lee Adler, Russ Winter, and Aaron Krowne analyze the impact of key financial events on the financial markets and economy, tell what to look for in the weeks and months ahead, and discuss strategies for the short, intermediate and long term. Not a subscriber? Click here for a free extended preview of this podcast.
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by Lee Adler, Wednesday, August 27, 2008, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition |
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Tuesday, August 26, 2008, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition |
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Latest cycle conditions and projections for the US Dollar Index and 10 Year Treasury Yield. Click links to download report in pdf format. (WSE Pro subscribers only). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Russ Winter, Tuesday, August 26, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog |
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The huge size of borrowings from some of the big players is coming home to roost. Some ugly bond refinancings are dead ahead for a number of Pig Men lead by Merill Lynch and Wachovia. It is looking more and more like these outfits will either get new foreign owners or just blow up.
Merrill [...] To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets,
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by Lee Adler, Tuesday, August 26, 2008, in Today's Markets, Professional Edition |
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All the talk about dead stocks walking is appropriate given that the market is wandering around like a zombie. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Lee Adler, Tuesday, August 26, 2008, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition |
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The Fed did a minor drain on Tuesday, but the 5 day net rose to a significant injection, helping the market to absorb a big chunk of the new short term Treasury paper. But there will be more where that came from. And more. And more. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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by Russ Winter, Tuesday, August 26, 2008, in Russ Winter, Russ's Blog |
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In my tracking portfolio I have conducted a little trading on my grocer plays. I came out of 3/4 of my WINN position bought 12.52 last week. It was sold at 15.56. I also sold half of my GAP position bought at 15.09 at 18.06. The group has since corrected back some, and a good [...] To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets,
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by Lee Adler, Tuesday, August 26, 2008, in Today's Markets |
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Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.
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