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Actionable Be On Your Toes

If you are trading this market especially on the long side, be on your toes. This week, the Fed fund rate popped to 7%, indicating the possibility that someone in the system is highly stressed. The last time that happened was just before the Lehman Brothers collapse. In this rather complacent environment I would not [...]

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Actionable Party Like It Was 2007

You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant. - Warren Buffett
Yesterday’s podcast is available to subscribers gratis here. If you want to skip my personal adventures or misadventures, we pick up my game theory and more detail on my market outlook at about 11:00 and it goes about twenty minutes. [...]

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Radio Free Wall Street

Lee Adler and Russ Winter discuss the coming buying opportunity and what will get us there. Not a subscriber? Click here to hear a free preview. Listen to any podcast prior to March 2009. Click here for archive. Be surprised! To subscribe and hear this podcast right now, click here! Subscribers only. Enter your login when prompted. Radio Free Wall Street Podcast 7/1/09 [33:50m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download Click here to start a 30 day risk free trial to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Fed Report.

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Actionable Lathered Up

Market is lathered up this morning about “good” economic news including pending home sales. I offer the following existing home sales (pending is an index) chart (from Calculated Risk) for readers to get a perspective on this.


In the podcast today (and one in which we actually had something to say) I went into my game [...]

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Actionable Clues from 1937-1938

I offer a chart (click to enlarge) from the 1937-1938 period that might offer clues as to what to expect going forward.

Evident is a big B to C thrust after the Panic’s first bottom.  We may now be on the early right angle at C. This in turn was followed by a quick gap away [...]

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Actionable More Fed Toxicity Clues

Another look at Federal Reserve exposure to toxic securities can be gleaned from these charts. First shows Oz’s exposure to mortgage backed securities (MBS) and then agencies. Finally is the current trajectory of serious delinquents at Freddie Mac, a trend closely correlated to the unemployment level.  Fed holds $255 billion of these now, mostly 4.5% [...]

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Actionable Political Football

It is becoming increasing apparent that Ben Bernanke and the Fed are becoming the political lightning rod for the whole issue of government intervention, too big to fail (TBTF) doctrine and the bailout economy. Given that the evidence will begin to mount that the Fed is holding some serious losses in its portfolio, the opposition [...]

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Actionable Capture

Another low volume pump rally in celebration of the perceived capture of the Gumnut by financial interests continues today. So far these have set up a pattern of flash events, that in turn evaporate. I would anticipate that this one follow the pattern.  It also enforces my warnings of late about trading this market right [...]

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Actionable ASSumptions

Moody’s has new credit card default numbers out for April, and its index climbed to 10.0%. I do find it somewhat perplexing that the stress tests done at about this same time used 9% as a worst case number. Just worth a mention.

There has been a second hotel bankruptcy this week this time Red Roof. [...]

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Actionable Stress Testing the Gumnut Confidence Game

The next stage of the “crisis” could very well be the need to stress test the Federal Reserve, and the US Treasury who have managed to set up a Gordian Knot of obligations and guarantees. In effect they have inherited a big chunk the fictitious capital (FC) and a good measure of the Old Maid [...]

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