Friday, July 3, 2009
If you are trading this market especially on the long side, be on your toes. This week, the Fed fund rate popped to 7%, indicating the possibility that someone in the system is highly stressed. The last time that happened was just before the Lehman Brothers collapse. In this rather complacent environment I would not [...]
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Thursday, July 2, 2009
You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant. - Warren Buffett
Yesterday’s podcast is available to subscribers gratis here. If you want to skip my personal adventures or misadventures, we pick up my game theory and more detail on my market outlook at about 11:00 and it goes about twenty minutes. [...]
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Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Lee Adler and Russ Winter discuss the coming buying opportunity and what will get us there.
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Radio Free Wall Street Podcast 7/1/09 [33:50m]:
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Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Market is lathered up this morning about “good” economic news including pending home sales. I offer the following existing home sales (pending is an index) chart (from Calculated Risk) for readers to get a perspective on this.
In the podcast today (and one in which we actually had something to say) I went into my game [...]
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
I offer a chart (click to enlarge) from the 1937-1938 period that might offer clues as to what to expect going forward.
Evident is a big B to C thrust after the Panic’s first bottom. We may now be on the early right angle at C. This in turn was followed by a quick gap away [...]
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Sunday, June 28, 2009
Another look at Federal Reserve exposure to toxic securities can be gleaned from these charts. First shows Oz’s exposure to mortgage backed securities (MBS) and then agencies. Finally is the current trajectory of serious delinquents at Freddie Mac, a trend closely correlated to the unemployment level. Fed holds $255 billion of these now, mostly 4.5% [...]
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Saturday, June 27, 2009
It is becoming increasing apparent that Ben Bernanke and the Fed are becoming the political lightning rod for the whole issue of government intervention, too big to fail (TBTF) doctrine and the bailout economy. Given that the evidence will begin to mount that the Fed is holding some serious losses in its portfolio, the opposition [...]
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Thursday, June 25, 2009
Another low volume pump rally in celebration of the perceived capture of the Gumnut by financial interests continues today. So far these have set up a pattern of flash events, that in turn evaporate. I would anticipate that this one follow the pattern. It also enforces my warnings of late about trading this market right [...]
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Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Moody’s has new credit card default numbers out for April, and its index climbed to 10.0%. I do find it somewhat perplexing that the stress tests done at about this same time used 9% as a worst case number. Just worth a mention.
There has been a second hotel bankruptcy this week this time Red Roof. [...]
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Monday, June 22, 2009
The next stage of the “crisis” could very well be the need to stress test the Federal Reserve, and the US Treasury who have managed to set up a Gordian Knot of obligations and guarantees. In effect they have inherited a big chunk the fictitious capital (FC) and a good measure of the Old Maid [...]
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