Friday, March 12, 2010
Christopher Thornberg has a chart presentation out and I have picked over some items for observation. One talking point of the bullish story is increasing exports. However, when one looks under the hood, and asks to whom, the answer is another one trick pony, China (second chart, YoY) . China, in turn has imported and [...]
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Thursday, March 11, 2010
Chart showing commodity rail shipments. So far this year this can’t barely keep pace with last year, and is far below 2006-2008 levels. Is this all that two years of 10% annual deficits to GDP is worth?
Source: Calculated Risk
I have posted at length about the factors that will lead to the next rout of the [...]
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Yesterday rumors floated concerning more restrictions on short selling from Gumnut owned securities which in turn led to a further blowoff in cats, dogs and junk stocks in general. This phase reminds me a lot of late 2007- early 2008, when constant rumormongering was in play on how the entire S&P 500 could be bought [...]
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Tuesday, March 9, 2010
There is evidence aplenty that Gumnut is driving forward with a partial exit strategy on its endless bailouts. �A key point man on this seems to be Barney Frank, who last week fired a trial-balloon volley on the implied Gumnut�guarantee of the GSEs. �He starts the new week off by delivering a letter (apparently leaked [...]
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Sunday, March 7, 2010
My attempt now is to put together a navigation survival guide that I will call the Titanic play. Along with the China axiom (that their economy always grows briskly), we have the axiom that Gumnuts, and especially big ones, are unsinkable and can borrow indefinitely at marginal cost and thereby âstimulateâ (in reality maladjust) and bailout weak sisters [...]
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Saturday, March 6, 2010
Further signs of a blow off in maladjustments continues to build. The Baltic Freight Index has risen 20% in six days and has hit 3242. This leaves little doubt that a big bagunca (mess) will be left in its wake. At the beginning of 2010, the market was saddled with orders for 1,400 new vessels [...]
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Friday, March 5, 2010
China has a monetary meeting on March 5th. Are they going to do anything about this?
A look at credit default insurance spreads on four large US States, Why would these have actually improved, these deficits and shortfalls are worse:
A glance at the Euro shows that the race to the bottom is only slightly being won [...]
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Thursday, March 4, 2010
Northwestern professor Victor Shih has zeroed in on China’s local and provisional governments to evaluate debt levels. Once again, the transparency offered is poor, but his study concludes that China’s overall government debt is headed to debt trap levels of 96% over the next year. The tenor of this and other reports looks alot like what happened in the [...]
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Tuesday, March 2, 2010
China’s holding of Treasuries goes parabolic. Part of this must be a back door deal to swap agencies for Treasuries with the Fed. Two elements of this are in question. One, China no longer has a large trade surplus to recycle, and secondly the Fed’s extreme purchases of mortgage securities is winding down. The third [...]
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Monday, March 1, 2010
PBOC mucky muck Zhu Min chimes in on what he considers a major risk,
âTo me, the big risk this year is the dollar carry trade,â he said. âIt is a massive issue. Estimates are that the dollar carry trade is $1,500bn â which is much bigger than Japanâs carry trade was.â
Arguably the Euro has now become [...]
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