Tuesday, February 9, 2010
It now feels that the pretend world is finally catching up to the real world. For those who seek some glimmer of hope, the message this time from Fitch on CRE delinquencies keeps coming in loud and clear as does the delinquencies on jumbo mortgages.
Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) — U.S. prime jumbo mortgages at least 60 [...]
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Saturday, February 6, 2010
To process what is transpiring in the world, we should focus on several stink bombs: Europe, the Anglo nations (US/UK) and Asia (primarily China). Today’s focus is the first two. (Continued)
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Friday, February 5, 2010
Harrisburg, Penn., is looking at bankruptcy and for obvious reasons, debt service is about equal to its entire budget. Look for a lot more of this.
You heard the concept here:
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) – Greeceâs biggest union approved the second mass strike this month and tax collectors began a 48-hour walkout, showing that Prime Minister George [...]
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Thursday, February 4, 2010
US Treasury is out with a report and illustrative charts on the key issue of times, debt traps. The first charts leads off with the interest paid against GDP. Since I believe GDP is in many respects bogus, I prefer to compare against tax revenues, which in 2009 were $2.1 trillion. What is important about this chart is that even [...]
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Wednesday, February 3, 2010
China continues tightening its property markets. Mostly likely property prices in China have already rolled over and are heading lower. Shanghai’s property stock index topped out in August, and has already dropped 33%.
Now looks like nothing has come out of Dubai on their restructuring talks, except shines. The CDS market is again starting to get [...]
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Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Don’t look now but carry traders are in the cross hairs in the UK. This is long overdue.
The implication is that carry trades and other forms of speculative trading activity that perform no apparent economic purpose would carry much higher capital requirements than ordinary lending and would therefore be rendered largely unprofitable.
State and localities are [...]
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Monday, February 1, 2010
SIGTARP has its quarterly report out, and it discusses both exposure the Gumnut now has, as well the moral hazard blowback caused. I was especially interested in Section 3 (starting on pg 109), which go into the Gumnut literal “ownership” of the mortgage market both as investor-speculator in the securities and as guarantor of said [...]
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Saturday, January 30, 2010
Asset correlation has been extremely high, as trades are seemingly being unwound in tandem. If a real jailbreak develops here, it will be important to separate the men from the boys. The USD carry trade has played a major role in distorting markets without much consideration for fundamentals, and it was using hot money to boot. That explains the [...]
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Friday, January 29, 2010
Blackstone mucky muck Steven Schwarzman, "Financial institutions will feel under siege and they will retreat … Their entire world is being shaken and they're being attacked personally. We don't need those financial institutions insecure." Yesterday, Morgan Stanley’s honcho John Mack was quoted as saying, ” the market probably wouldn't crash if Bernanke wasn’t confirmed, but [...]
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Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Lots of Sgt. Schlutz defenses about the AIG folly, with Bernanke, Paulson and Geithner claiming they weren’t involved. If true, that would suggest the transactions went down on auto-pilot with no questions asked, and that’s not good. The argument about no negotiating power in the situation is as loony as Fed policy in general. On the [...]
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