Russ’s Blog

DIFFERENTIATION AMONG COMMODITIES BULLISH FOR GOLD DEVELOPERS

April 8, 2013
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Differentiation Among Commodities Bullish for Precious Metals Producers available gratis at WinterActionables.

Winter Actionables Has Moved: A New Site, A New Subscription Offer

March 27, 2013
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Dear Subscriber:

My blog has a new home. I’ve moved to WinterActionables.comPlease register at my new site and subscribe to my three-month “Free Trial” offer no later than April 15, 2013. At the end of the three-month “Free Trial” period, automatic billing will begin at the rate of $35 per quarter.

That’s right. I’m rolling back subscription prices to just $35 per quarter! In addition to my regular blog, the new site offers a subscriber Forum that I hope will encourage live discussions. Your subscription will also include four monthly Radio Free Wall Street podcasts, on which I am a panelist and Lee Adler the host. If you are already a full RFWS subscriber, nothing will change for you, and you can continue to access all of the podcasts via WallStreetExaminer as before.

To clarify, if getting more for less doesn’t appeal to you (lol), you are not obligated to continue beyond the “Free Trial” period. You can simply unsubscribe before the trial period ends and you will not be billed.

I will no longer be posting at this site, but there will be some non password protected material available at my new primary site.

- Russ Winter

 

Ominous Positioning In The S&P 500 Futures, Gold And The Dollar

March 23, 2013
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My article, Ominous positioning in the S&P 500 futures, Gold and Dollar available at Seeking Alpha.

Gold Short Bubble for the Paper Manipulators: The Final Day at Kursk

February 23, 2013
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The rest of the article is available at Seeking Alpha.

Other than the bottom in gold back in late 2008, the managed-money funds rarely make big bets against gold — until now. During the last three weeks, it appears that these funds played a major role in the rote 8 a.m. “selling” in gold futures. The impression was that there was selling. In fact, these managed-money funds have ramped up a record naked short bet against POG. It should be noted that when managed money funds made smaller bets in 2008, 2009, July 2010 and July 2011, gold had some substantial subsequent runs. The hedge funds had already greatly reduced holdings in the GLD ETF (see chart) at the end of 2012. They are now further reduced to a bare minimum, completely abandoning this trade.

 

Follow the Bouncing Ball: Serious Misreporting of the Sequester News

February 17, 2013
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“There won’t be any easy off-ramps on this one. The days of 11th-hour negotiations are over.” -Sen. Mitch McConnell, GOP Senate Minority Leader

Increasingly, I feel as if I am Alice in Wonderland and have serious concerns about the fifth estate. One has to be a Sherlock Homes to get to the bottom of the sequester story, so little wonder that the wool is being pulled over the eyes of the American people. Thus, the online public comments in these news stories don’t even seem to even understand the numbers or math being proposed. I am posting this so that others can cross-check how the sequester counterplan from the Senate Democrats is being falsely reported.

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Concerns Raised Over Fed Distortions: Or How Do They Bail Out A Bailout?

February 14, 2013
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Article available at Seeking Alpha.

When you finally get a headline and story like the following out of a mainstream financial outlet like Bloomberg, it means the Fed has trouble: “Fed Joining in Alarm over Distortion it Enabled.”

Fed Joining in Alarm Over Distortion It Enabled: Or How Do They Bailout, a Bailout?

February 13, 2013
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“To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback. Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the NASDAQ bubble.” - clown posse Paul Krugman in 2002.

Addendum to yesterday’s junk bond post (at Actionables) . When you finally get a headline and story like this out of mainstream financial outlet like Bloomberg, it means the Fed is in big trouble: Fed Joining in Alarm over Distortion it Enabled. I added a chart to that post showing the huge surge of lite-covenant issuance in 2012. Then in January sales of so-called covenant-lite loans represented about 55 percent of the debt sold to non-bank lenders, the greatest proportion ever, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a Jan. 25 report. Covenant-lite debt does not carry lender protection such as financial maintenance requirement.

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It’s Like Speculating on the Mafia

February 6, 2013
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I highly recommend viewing one of Brazil’s biggest box office hits ever is “Tropa de Elite II” (trailer), which is a very intelligent film about the “sistema,” or corrupt system, in Rio de Janerio. It’s available  on Netflix (with subtitles) in the instant play/streaming section. The story involves the sleazy criminal alliance between a group of corrupt  politicians and corrupt police militia (corruptos), who move into a vacuum after the traficantes (drug dealers) and vagabundagem are run out of several of Rio’s largest favelas (slums) by Rio’s special police, the BOPE.  The corruptos (some of the best villains in film history) then take over the favelas unchecked, and in mafia style, exploit and control the communities through violence and intimidation.

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The Real Great Rotation Will Be A Shift Away From Money

February 4, 2013
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The “great rotation”,  is the newest propaganda meme for the masses. On Google search stats, the last major spike was the 2007 market high. This one has been around for awhile and now shows a recent search surge. However, the money flows into equities represent the pull forward of selling into December to take advantage of lower tax rates. January is primarily a return of this investment, and not new money of any consequence.  January almost always sees money coming to the market, so this is being exaggerated. Even if there was a rotation, that would spell the death knell of the credit and bond bubbles.  Credit and bond bubbles need constant new credit, not diversion to equity.

Entire article is available at Seeking Alpha. 

 

 

Consumer is in Trouble

January 30, 2013
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Presented without comment:

Redbook Chain Store Sales: +1.6% Y/Y vs. +1.8% last week. The 1.6% is the slowest growth rate since mid-Nov. ICSC Retail Store Sales: -1.0% W/W, vs. -1.5% last week.+2.0% Y/Y vs. +3.5% last week. Higher payroll taxes, post-holiday and cold temperature negatively impacted store sales

Jan. Consumer Confidence: 58.6 vs. 65.1 expected, 66.7 in Dec. (revised).

More perverse lousy numbers followed by a rally to new highs in Amazon (AMZN): Q4 EPS of $0.21 misses by $0.07. Revenue of $21.27B (+27% Y/Y) misses by $1 billion and guides 1Q revenue lower by $1 billion.

 

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